When warning signs are ignored, growth turns into a total loss.
Wirecard was a model company for a long time. Then the house of cards collapsed. For many small and medium-sized businesses, this sounds like “the financial world” and “DAX drama”. In reality, it is a very down-to-earth lesson: Those who do not systematically check warning signs make decisions built on sand.
What happened – in two sentences
In June 2020, Wirecard announced that €1.9 billion in trust accounts probably did not exist. Shortly afterwards, the company filed for insolvency.
The case sparked a broad debate about supervision, auditing and balance sheet control.
The real lesson: ignorance often arises from “gaps in responsibility”
Many organisations fail not because of a lack of data, but because of a lack of responsibility:
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Sales relies on figures from finance.
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Finance relies on auditors/reports.
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Management relies on “market confidence” and status.
It is precisely this chain that makes fraud – but also perfectly normal wrong decisions – possible. Because no one has the task of consistently combining external signals and internal plausibility.
What you as an SME can learn from this
You don’t need a DAX control architecture. You need a simple, repeatable red flag process for situations such as:
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new major customers / large framework agreements
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New partners (IT, platforms, sales partners)
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Acquisitions/investments
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International expansion
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Larger financing rounds or factoring models
1) “Evidence instead of assertions”
The most important rule: Important statements must be verifiable.
For partners, this means: payment flows, contracts, proof of delivery, references, ownership structure, hard key figures. Not “cover sheets”.
2) “External view” as standard
For sensitive decisions, you should incorporate a fixed block:
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Registers/publications
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Reputable media reports
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Personnel/location signals
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Customer/supplier signals
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Legal risks and regulatory information
In the Wirecard case, the discussion about supervision and balance sheet control later became so heated that it even led to legal reforms (keyword: greater powers for financial supervision).
For SMEs, the consequence is: Never rely on just one perspective.
3) Define stop criteria (this is the professional move)
A stop criterion is a clear rule such as:
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“If payment flows cannot be verified, we stop the deal.”
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“If a partner cannot provide verifiable evidence of their key figures, we reduce the risk or abandon the deal.”
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“If external signals are contradictory, an independent audit is carried out.”
Where AI makes sense – and where humans remain essential
AI can help to collect external signals more quickly, reveal contradictions and structure documents. But:
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Plausibility checks, follow-up questions, responsibility and consequences are human tasks.
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AI does not replace the decision of when to stop.
What SMEs can learn from this
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Red flags are not mistrust. They are professional risk management.
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“We know them” is not a test criterion.
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External signals belong in every major decision-making process.
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Stop criteria save money, time and nerves.
Sources (selection): Financial Times; The Guardian; BaFin Annual Report 2020; EU Parliament Policy Briefings.
